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Company Analysis

Alcoa Corporation AA

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for Alcoa Corporation

Overview of Alcoa Corporation

AA NYQ
Basic Materials Aluminum Large Cap
Alcoa Corporation (AA), is a Large Cap company, in the Aluminum industry, last closed at $63.59, about 22.4% overvalued vs fair value, +82.8% 1Y return, ranked 85/263 in sector.
$63.59
-3.55%
As of March 13, 2026
Previous close • Vol 90d: 54.1%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$16.78B
Enterprise Value
$15.18B
Overall Score
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Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://www.alcoa.com
HQ Pittsburgh, PA
Employees 13,900
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

Dividend Mar 26
Earnings Apr 15 Estimated

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$42
$49
$55
Current: $63.59 -22% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Large Cap

Commodities & Mining - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
11.89B
7.9%%
Gross Profit
1.85B
-6.6%%
Operating Income
828.00M
17.3%%
EBITDA
1.09B
71.5%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Commodities & Mining

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio
0.04x
Poor

Free cash flow relative to net income

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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

$105.0M
250.0% of FCF

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health critical
Significant cash flow inefficiencies identified. Multiple high-impact leaks require attention.
4
Active Leaks
2/4
Improving
2
High Impact
1
Critical
Locked Leak
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Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating Alcoa Corporation's durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
64
/100
Moderate
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors

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Pricing Power

Moderate
60
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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Generic Industrial / Default vs Industry Peers 100% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing AA's balance between Growth (29.7%), Profitability (37.8%), and Safety (32.5%). Growth 30% Safety 33% Profitability 38%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

3-Year Trend Analysis Locked
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Growth

52th percentile vs peers
52
Key Signals
Revenue CAGR 3Y 1.0% 87p EPS Growth YoY 1.08 62p Rev Growth YoY 7.9% 37p TSR 41.7% 58p EPS CAGR 3Y -50.1% 5p
Strengths
  • Revenue Cagr 3Y in top 20% of peers (1.0%, 87th percentile)
  • Interest Coverage Ratio in top 20% of peers (7.85, 87th percentile)
  • Operating Margin in top 20% of peers (7.6%, 87th percentile)
  • Net Profit Margin in top 20% of peers (8.9%, 87th percentile)
Risks

No significant risks identified for this axis.

Profitability

66th percentile vs peers
67
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

57th percentile vs peers
57
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for Alcoa Corporation.

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Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

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  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$49.34
- - -
-22.4% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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