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Company Analysis

Bridger Aerospace Group Holding BAER

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for Bridger Aerospace Group Holding

Overview of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.

BAER NGM
Industrials Security & Protection Services Micro Cap
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER), is a Micro Cap company, in the Security & Protection Services industry, last closed at $2.00, about 36.5% undervalued vs fair value, +28.2% 1Y return, ranked 408/658 in sector.
$2.00
-2.44%
As of March 13, 2026
Previous close • Vol 90d: 74.0%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$111.09M
Enterprise Value
$267.42M
Overall Score
Scores locked

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Top Beats
No strong beats yet

Quick Facts

Website https://www.bridgeraerospace.c...
HQ Belgrade, MT
Employees 191
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

No upcoming events available.

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$2
$3
$3
Current: $2.00 +37% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Micro Cap

Corporate Free Cash Flow - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
$98.6M
47.8%%
Gross Profit
$41.1M
62.2%%
Operating Income
$5.3M
109.2%%
Net Income
$-15.6M
79.9%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Corporate Free Cash Flow

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio
-26.4%
Poor

FCF / Net Income - measures how well earnings convert to cash

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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

$309.3M
7515.5% of FCF

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health critical
Significant cash flow inefficiencies identified. Multiple high-impact leaks require attention.
8
Active Leaks
1/8
Improving
0
High Impact
5
Critical
Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating Bridger Aerospace Group Holding's durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
48
/100
Developing
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors

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Pricing Power

Developing
47
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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Generic Industrial / Default vs Industry Peers 95% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing BAER's balance between Growth (36.4%), Profitability (27.1%), and Safety (36.6%). Growth 36% Safety 37% Profitability 27%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

3-Year Trend Analysis Locked
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Growth

70th percentile vs peers
70
Key Signals
Rev Growth YoY 47.8% 96p Revenue CAGR 3Y 35.8% 70p EPS Growth YoY 80.7% 61p TSR -18.3% 11p
Strengths
  • Rev Growth Yoy in top 20% of peers (47.8%, 96th percentile)
  • D/E Ratio in top 20% of peers (3.97, 92th percentile)
  • Growth above peer median with strong metric coverage (85%)
  • Net Debt/Ebitda in top 20% of peers (6.97, 93th percentile)
Risks

No significant risks identified for this axis.

Profitability

52th percentile vs peers
52
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

70th percentile vs peers
71
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for Bridger Aerospace Group Holding.

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Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

  • Recently listed companies (IPOs, SPACs)
  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$2.73
- - -
+36.5% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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