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Company Analysis

Churchill Downs, Incorporated CHDN

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for Churchill Downs, Incorporated

Overview of Churchill Downs Incorporated

CHDN NMS
Consumer Cyclical Gambling Mid Cap
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN), is a Mid Cap company, in the Gambling industry, last closed at $86.36, about 13.7% overvalued vs fair value, -22.6% 1Y return, ranked 263/539 in sector.
$86.36
2.71%
As of March 13, 2026
Previous close • Vol 90d: 29.6%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$6.02B
Enterprise Value
$6.64B
Overall Score
Scores locked

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Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://www.churchilldownsinco...
HQ Louisville, KY
Employees 6,600
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

Earnings Apr 29 Estimated

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$67
$75
$83
Current: $86.36 -14% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Mid Cap

Corporate Free Cash Flow - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
$2.7B
11.1%%
Gross Profit
$938.5M
17.9%%
Operating Income
$700.8M
18.1%%
Net Income
$379.7M
-11%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Corporate Free Cash Flow

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio
59.4%
Fair

FCF / Net Income - measures how well earnings convert to cash

Locked Metric
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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

$458.6M
203.2% of FCF

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health critical
Significant cash flow inefficiencies identified. Multiple high-impact leaks require attention.
3
Active Leaks
1/3
Improving
0
High Impact
1
Critical
Locked Leak
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Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating Churchill Downs, Incorporated's durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
64
/100
Moderate
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors

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Pricing Power

Moderate
61
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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Generic Industrial / Default vs Industry Peers 100% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing CHDN's balance between Growth (28.1%), Profitability (45.2%), and Safety (26.7%). Growth 28% Safety 27% Profitability 45%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

3-Year Trend Analysis Locked
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Growth

45th percentile vs peers
45
Key Signals
Rev Growth YoY 11.1% 46p Revenue CAGR 3Y 19.6% 46p EPS CAGR 3Y 21.7% 60p EPS Growth YoY 4.3% 30p TSR -14.5% 42p
Strengths
  • Superior capital returns - 2 return metrics above peer median
  • Operating Margin in top 20% of peers (25.6%, 86th percentile)
  • Ebit Margin in top 20% of peers (31.6%, 93th percentile)
  • Net Debt/Ebitda in top 20% of peers (4.44, 91th percentile)
Risks

No significant risks identified for this axis.

Profitability

72th percentile vs peers
72
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

42th percentile vs peers
43
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for Churchill Downs, Incorporated.

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Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

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  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$74.53
- - -
-13.7% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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