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Company Analysis

Fossil Group, Inc. FOSL

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for Fossil Group, Inc.

Overview of Fossil Group, Inc.

FOSL NMS
Consumer Cyclical Footwear & Accessories Micro Cap
Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL), is a Micro Cap company, in the Footwear & Accessories industry, last closed at $4.77, about 452.8% undervalued vs fair value, +233.6% 1Y return, ranked 530/539 in sector.
$4.77
-0.63%
As of March 13, 2026
Previous close • Vol 90d: 88.3%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$268.97M
Enterprise Value
$510.47M
Overall Score
Scores locked

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Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://www.fossilgroup.com
HQ Richardson, TX
Employees 5,200
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

Earnings Mar 11 Call: Mar 11

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$23
$26
$30
Current: $4.77 +453% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Micro Cap

Corporate Free Cash Flow - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
$1.1B
-18.9%%
Gross Profit
$597.2M
-12.1%%
Operating Income
$-41.6M
57.3%%
Net Income
$-102.7M
34.6%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Corporate Free Cash Flow

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio
-38.9%
Poor

FCF / Net Income - measures how well earnings convert to cash

Locked Metric
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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

$44.3M
111.0% of FCF

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health critical
Significant cash flow inefficiencies identified. Multiple high-impact leaks require attention.
2
Active Leaks
1/2
Improving
0
High Impact
1
Critical
Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating Fossil Group, Inc.'s durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
33
/100
Developing
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors

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Pricing Power

Developing
42
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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Generic Industrial / Default vs Industry Peers 92% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing FOSL's balance between Growth (25.6%), Profitability (21.1%), and Safety (53.3%). Growth 26% Safety 53% Profitability 21%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

3-Year Trend Analysis Locked
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Growth

25th percentile vs peers
26
Key Signals
EPS Growth YoY 35.5% 62p Rev Growth YoY -18.9% 19p Revenue CAGR 3Y -15.1% 3p
Strengths
  • D/E Ratio in top 20% of peers (2.12, 88th percentile)
  • Net Debt/Ebitda in top 20% of peers (10.65, 86th percentile)
  • Debt/Fcf Ratio in top 20% of peers (7.91, 87th percentile)
  • Conservative leverage compared to industry peers
Risks
  • Rev Growth Yoy in bottom 20% of peers (-18.9%)

Profitability

21th percentile vs peers
21
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

53th percentile vs peers
53
Key Signals
Strengths
Safety drilldowns are available to premium members.

Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for Fossil Group, Inc..

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Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

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  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$26.37
- - -
+452.8% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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