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Company Analysis

Geo Group Inc (The) REIT GEO

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for Geo Group Inc (The) REIT

Overview of The GEO Group, Inc.

GEO NYQ
Industrials Security & Protection Services Mid Cap
The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO), is a Mid Cap company, in the Security & Protection Services industry, last closed at $14.55, about 130.5% undervalued vs fair value, -44.7% 1Y return, ranked 298/656 in sector.
$14.55
3.19%
As of March 13, 2026
Previous close • Vol 90d: 56.0%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$2.03B
Enterprise Value
$3.68B
Overall Score
Scores locked

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Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://www.geogroup.com
HQ Boca Raton, FL
Employees 18,000
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

Earnings May 6 Estimated

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$30
$34
$38
Current: $14.55 +131% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Mid Cap

Corporate Free Cash Flow - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
$2.6B
8.6%%
Gross Profit
$663.1M
-72.6%%
Operating Income
$257.5M
-16.9%%
Net Income
$254.4M
695.8%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Corporate Free Cash Flow

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio
64.3%
Fair

FCF / Net Income - measures how well earnings convert to cash

Locked Metric
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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

$109.7M
67.1% of FCF

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health critical
Significant cash flow inefficiencies identified. Multiple high-impact leaks require attention.
5
Active Leaks
1/5
Improving
2
High Impact
1
Critical
Locked Leak
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Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating Geo Group Inc (The) REIT's durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
58
/100
Moderate
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors

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Pricing Power

Moderate
66
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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Generic Industrial / Default vs Industry Peers 100% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing GEO's balance between Growth (24.7%), Profitability (37.6%), and Safety (37.6%). Growth 25% Safety 38% Profitability 38%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

3-Year Trend Analysis Locked
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Growth

39th percentile vs peers
39
Key Signals
Rev Growth YoY 8.6% 70p TSR 97.7% 92p Revenue CAGR 3Y 3.5% 25p EPS CAGR 3Y -28.1% 10p EPS Growth YoY -72.5% 4p
Strengths
  • Superior capital returns - 2 return metrics above peer median
  • Tsr in top 20% of peers (97.7%, 92th percentile)
  • Debt/Fcf Ratio in top 20% of peers (11.08, 84th percentile)
  • Consistently strong margins across 4 metrics
  • Conservative leverage compared to industry peers
Risks
  • Eps Growth Yoy in bottom 20% of peers (-72.5%)
  • Growth below peer median (percentile: 39)

Profitability

59th percentile vs peers
60
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

59th percentile vs peers
60
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for Geo Group Inc (The) REIT.

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Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

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  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$33.54
- - -
+130.5% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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