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Company Analysis

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. ZTO

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

Overview of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

ZTO NYQ
Industrials Integrated Freight & Logistics Large Cap
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO), is a Large Cap company, in the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry, last closed at $24.04, about 322.3% undervalued vs fair value, +16.0% 1Y return, ranked 181/656 in sector.
$24.04
2.34%
As of March 13, 2026
Previous close • Vol 90d: 23.0%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$18.23B
Enterprise Value
$21.21B
Overall Score
Scores locked

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Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://www.zto.com
HQ Shanghai
Employees 24,477
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

Earnings Mar 17 Call: Mar 18

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$91
$102
$113
Current: $24.04 +322% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Large Cap

Corporate Free Cash Flow - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
$44.3B
15.3%%
Gross Profit
$13.7B
17.6%%
Operating Income
$11.8B
17.7%%
Net Income
$8.8B
0.8%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Corporate Free Cash Flow

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio
62.7%
Fair

FCF / Net Income - measures how well earnings convert to cash

Locked Metric
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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

$6.8B
122.4% of FCF

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health critical
Significant cash flow inefficiencies identified. Multiple high-impact leaks require attention.
4
Active Leaks
2/4
Improving
0
High Impact
1
Critical
Locked Leak
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Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
83
/100
Strong
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors

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Pricing Power

Strong
76
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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Generic Industrial / Default vs Industry Peers 100% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing ZTO's balance between Growth (34.4%), Profitability (40.9%), and Safety (24.7%). Growth 34% Safety 25% Profitability 41%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

3-Year Trend Analysis Locked
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Growth

73th percentile vs peers
73
Key Signals
Rev Growth YoY 15.3% 77p Revenue CAGR 3Y 13.4% 69p EPS Growth YoY 0.8% 69p EPS CAGR 3Y 21.9% 91p TSR -4.5% 50p
Strengths
  • Eps Cagr 3Y in top 20% of peers (21.9%, 91th percentile)
  • Interest Coverage Ratio in top 20% of peers (35.55, 80th percentile)
  • Superior capital returns - 3 return metrics above peer median
  • Growth above peer median with strong metric coverage (100%)
Risks

No significant risks identified for this axis.

Profitability

87th percentile vs peers
87
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

52th percentile vs peers
53
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc..

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Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

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  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$101.53
- - -
+322.3% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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