Company Analysis

Alcoa Corporation AA

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for Alcoa Corporation

Overview of Alcoa Corporation

AA NYQ

Basic Materials Aluminum Framework: Commodities & Mining Large Cap

Alcoa Corporation (AA), is a Large Cap company, in the Aluminum industry, last closed at $68.77, about 28.3% overvalued vs fair value, +137.1% 1Y return, ranked 85/266 in sector.

Metrics Rev Growth 7.9% ROE 20.3% Gross Margin 13.5% Div Yield 0.76%

USD 68.77

-0.30%

(Delayed)

• Vol 90d: 57.2%

52-Week Range

Low

27.86

73%

Now 68.77

High

83.79

Market Cap

$18.20B

Enterprise Value

$16.61B

Overall Score

View breakdown

Overall

Growth

Good

Profitability

Good

Health

Fair

Efficiency

Fair

Valuation

Fair

Growth

Good

Profitability

Good

Health

Fair

Efficiency

Fair

Valuation

Fair

Completeness: 82%

Confidence: 88%

Updated: Mar 8

Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://www.alcoa.com

HQ Pittsburgh, PA

Employees 13,900

Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

Earnings Jul 15 Estimated

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull

$42

$49

$55

Current: $68.77 -28% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Large Cap

Commodities & Mining - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps

Revenue

11.89B

7.9%%

Gross Profit

1.85B

-6.6%%

Operating Income

828.00M

17.3%%

EBITDA

1.09B

71.5%%

Money Flow Bridge

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Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right

Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage

Industry-Specific: Commodities & Mining

Data Quality Notes

Mining/commodity companies are highly cyclical - cash flow can swing dramatically with commodity prices.
CapEx ($-618.0M) is below D&A ($642.0M), suggesting mostly sustaining CapEx.
Free cash flow has been volatile in recent periods - typical for commodity-driven businesses.

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio

0.04x

Poor

Free cash flow relative to net income

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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

$90.0M

214.3% of FCF

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health critical

Significant cash flow inefficiencies identified. Multiple high-impact leaks require attention.

Active Leaks

2/5

Improving

High Impact

Critical

Working Capital Trap

Current: -80.2%

Conversion Leak

Improving

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Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors

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Pricing Power

Developing

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Cost Advantage

Developing

Customer Stickiness

Moderate

Capital Efficiency

Moderate

Resilience

Moderate

Scale & Market Position

Developing

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Commodities & Mining vs Industry Peers 100% Coverage

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

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Growth

52th percentile vs peers

Key Signals

Rev Growth YoY 7.9% 63p EPS Growth YoY 1.08 83p Revenue CAGR 3Y 1.0% 41p TSR 41.7% 54p EPS CAGR 3Y -50.1% 4p

Strengths

EPS Growth YoY in top 20% of peers (1.08, 83th percentile)
Superior capital returns - 2 return metrics above peer median
Debt/FCF Ratio in top 20% of peers (67.10, 96th percentile)

Risks

No significant risks identified for this axis.

Profitability

45th percentile vs peers

Key Signals

Strengths

Risks

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Safety

53th percentile vs peers

Key Signals

Strengths

Safety drilldowns are available to premium members.

Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for Alcoa Corporation.

WACC X.X%

X%XX%

Rev CAGR 5Y X.X%

-XX%XX%

Op Margin XX.X%

-XX%XX%

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Bear

- - -

- upside

Base

$49.33

- - -

-28.3% vs current

Snapshot base estimate

Bull

- - -

- upside

Fair Value Range Current: $-

$- $- $-

Alcoa Corporation AA

Overview of Alcoa Corporation

Quick Facts

Next Events

Fair Value Snapshot

Flow Steps

Money Flow Bridge

Data Quality Notes

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio

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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Working Capital Trap

Locked Leak

Locked Leak

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Pricing Power

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Cost Advantage

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Customer Stickiness

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Capital Efficiency

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Resilience

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Scale & Market Position

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Growth

Profitability

Safety

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