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Company Analysis

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. ADTN

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.

Overview of ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.

ADTN NMS
Technology Communication Equipment Framework: General Corporate Small Cap
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN), is a Small Cap company, in the Communication Equipment industry, last closed at $6.28, about 189.5% undervalued vs fair value, -21.8% 1Y return, ranked 429/780 in sector.
Metrics Rev Growth 17.5% ROE -33.5% Gross Margin 38.3% Div Yield 0.00%
USD 6.28
-3.83%
(Delayed)
• Vol 90d: 59.8%
Market Cap
$510.08M
Enterprise Value
$1.01B
Overall Score
View breakdown
Overall
Growth
Good
Profitability
Fair
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Fair
Valuation
Fair
Growth
Good
Profitability
Fair
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Fair
Valuation
Fair
Completeness: 100%
Confidence: 96%
Updated: Oct 31
Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://www.adtran.com
HQ Huntsville, AL
Employees 3,091
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

Earnings Nov 2 Call: Nov 3

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$15
$18
$21
Current: $6.28 +190% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Small Cap

Corporate Free Cash Flow - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
$1.1B
17.5%%
Gross Profit
$415.0M
28%%
Operating Income
-$15.6M
96.4%%
Net Income
-$45.7M
90.1%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Corporate Free Cash Flow

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio FY2025
-132.5%

Operating Cash Flow / Net Income

FCF / Net Income - not meaningful while net income is negative (a near-100% ratio here only reflects cash burn tracking accounting losses, not earnings quality)

Locked Metric
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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

$6.1M
16.0% of FCF

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health critical
Significant cash flow inefficiencies identified. Multiple high-impact leaks require attention.
3
Active Leaks
3/3
Improving
0
High Impact
1
Critical
Locked Leak
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Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.'s durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
40
/100
Developing
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors
Full moat analysis

Key risks

  • Revenue Volatility Signals Weak Stickiness Revenue volatility is high (stability score 0.28), suggesting weak customer stickiness.
  • Volatile Margins Suggest Cyclicality Margin volatility is high (stability score 0.30), suggesting cyclical exposure or competitive pressure.

The dashed ring is the peer median. Defense scores are percentile ranks against peers, so 50 is roughly the typical company in this group.

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Pricing Power

Developing
28
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Signals, strengths and risks for Pricing Power

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Signals, strengths and risks for Cost Advantage

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Signals, strengths and risks for Customer Stickiness

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Signals, strengths and risks for Capital Efficiency

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Signals, strengths and risks for Resilience

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Signals, strengths and risks for Scale & Market Position

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

vs Industry Peers 95% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing ADTN's balance between Growth (44.3%), Profitability (28.0%), and Safety (27.8%). Growth 44% Safety 28% Profitability 28%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

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Growth

67th percentile vs peers
68
Key Signals
Rev Growth YoY 17.5% 79p EPS Growth YoY 90.2% 84p Revenue CAGR 3Y 1.9% 46p TSR 4.3% 53p
Strengths
  • EPS Growth YoY in top 20% of peers (90.2%, 84th percentile)
  • Growth above peer median with strong metric coverage (85%)
Risks

No significant risks identified for this axis.

Profitability

42th percentile vs peers
43
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

42th percentile vs peers
43
Key Signals
Strengths
Safety drilldowns are available to premium members.

Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for ADTRAN Holdings, Inc..

Loading valuation model...
Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

  • Recently listed companies (IPOs, SPACs)
  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
X.X%
X%XX%
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$18.18
- - -
+189.5% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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