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Company Analysis

Adecoagro S.A. AGRO

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for Adecoagro S.A.

Overview of Adecoagro S.A.

AGRO NYQ
Consumer Defensive Farm Products Framework: General Corporate Small Cap
Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO), is a Small Cap company, in the Farm Products industry, last closed at $9.56, about 59.1% undervalued vs fair value, +18.6% 1Y return, placing in the top 25% of its sector.
Metrics Rev Growth -6.0% ROE -0.5% Gross Margin 24.6% Div Yield 4.41%
USD 9.56
-1.34%
(Delayed)
• Vol 90d: 44.4%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$1.38B
Enterprise Value
$3.23B
Overall Score
View breakdown
Overall
Growth
Good
Profitability
Good
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Good
Valuation
Good
Growth
Good
Profitability
Good
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Good
Valuation
Good
Completeness: 100%
Confidence: 98%
Updated: Oct 31
Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://www.adecoagro.com
HQ Luxembourg
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

Earnings Nov 11 Call: Nov 13
Dividend Nov 19

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$13
$15
$17
Current: $9.56 +59% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Small Cap

Corporate Free Cash Flow - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
$1.4B
-6%%
Gross Profit
$351.3M
-19.2%%
Operating Income
$94.3M
-48.3%%
Net Income
-$8.3M
-109%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Corporate Free Cash Flow

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio FY2025
-505.7%

Operating Cash Flow / Net Income

FCF / Net Income - not meaningful while net income is negative (a near-100% ratio here only reflects cash burn tracking accounting losses, not earnings quality)

Locked Metric
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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

$45.2M
107.1% of FCF

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health critical
Significant cash flow inefficiencies identified. Multiple high-impact leaks require attention.
6
Active Leaks
0/6
Improving
2
High Impact
2
Critical
Locked Leak
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Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating Adecoagro S.A.'s durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
62
/100
Moderate
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors
Full moat analysis

Key strengths

  • Margins Consistently Above Peers Gross margin at 24.6% (top 11%) and operating margin at 6.6% (top 11%) indicate strong pricing power.
  • Revenue Growth Consistent Revenue growth volatility is low (stability score 0.70), suggesting sticky customer base.

Key risks

  • Elevated Debt Risk Debt serviceability is weak (score 0.37), raising refinancing risk.

The dashed ring is the peer median. Defense scores are percentile ranks against peers, so 50 is roughly the typical company in this group.

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Pricing Power

Moderate
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Signals, strengths and risks for Pricing Power

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Signals, strengths and risks for Cost Advantage

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Signals, strengths and risks for Customer Stickiness

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Signals, strengths and risks for Capital Efficiency

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Signals, strengths and risks for Resilience

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Signals, strengths and risks for Scale & Market Position

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

vs Industry Peers 100% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing AGRO's balance between Growth (25.8%), Profitability (46.5%), and Safety (27.7%). Growth 26% Safety 28% Profitability 47%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

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Growth

30th percentile vs peers
30
Key Signals
Revenue CAGR 3Y 1.9% 46p Rev Growth YoY -6.0% 22p EPS CAGR 3Y -8.7% 34p TSR -12.2% 36p EPS Growth YoY -1.07 15p
Strengths
  • Consistently strong margins across 4 metrics
Risks
  • EPS Growth YoY in bottom 20% of peers (-1.07)

Profitability

54th percentile vs peers
55
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

32th percentile vs peers
33
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for Adecoagro S.A..

Loading valuation model...
Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

  • Recently listed companies (IPOs, SPACs)
  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$15.21
- - -
+59.1% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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