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Company Analysis

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. AMBP

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.

Overview of Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.

AMBP NYQ
Consumer Cyclical Packaging & Containers Framework: General Corporate Mid Cap
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP), is a Mid Cap company, in the Packaging & Containers industry, last closed at $4.73, about 187.7% undervalued vs fair value, +42.5% 1Y return, ranked 231/548 in sector.
Metrics Rev Growth 12.0% ROE -2.7% Gross Margin 12.4% Div Yield 10.69%
USD 4.73
5.11%
(Delayed)
• Vol 90d: 36.3%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$2.83B
Enterprise Value
$6.94B
Overall Score
View breakdown
Overall
Growth
Fair
Profitability
Weak
Health
Weak
Efficiency
Fair
Valuation
Fair
Growth
Fair
Profitability
Weak
Health
Weak
Efficiency
Fair
Valuation
Fair
Completeness: 100%
Confidence: 96%
Updated: Oct 31
Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://www.ardaghmetalpackagi...
HQ Luxembourg
Employees 6,498
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

Dividend Dec 10 Ex-div: Nov 25

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$12
$14
$15
Current: $4.73 +188% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Mid Cap

Corporate Free Cash Flow - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
$5.5B
12%%
Gross Profit
$681.0M
8.1%%
Operating Income
$244.0M
20.8%%
Net Income
$11.0M
466.7%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Corporate Free Cash Flow

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio FY2025
24.1x

Operating Cash Flow / Net Income

FCF / Net Income — not a reliable quality signal when net income is near-zero (ratio is inflated by thin margins, not strong cash generation)

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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

$551.0M
207.9% of FCF

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health critical
Significant cash flow inefficiencies identified. Multiple high-impact leaks require attention.
4
Active Leaks
2/4
Improving
1
High Impact
2
Critical
Locked Leak
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Locked Leak
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Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
42
/100
Developing
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors
Full moat analysis

Key strengths

  • Revenue Growth Consistent Revenue growth volatility is low (stability score 0.86), suggesting sticky customer base.
  • Operating Leverage in Effect Operating leverage is evident (score 0.95), with margins expanding over time.

Key risks

  • ROIC Below WACC or Peers ROIC at 31.8th percentile suggests inefficient capital deployment.
  • Elevated Debt Risk Debt serviceability is weak (score 0.20), raising refinancing risk.

The dashed ring is the peer median. Defense scores are percentile ranks against peers, so 50 is roughly the typical company in this group.

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Pricing Power

Developing
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Signals, strengths and risks for Pricing Power

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Signals, strengths and risks for Cost Advantage

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Signals, strengths and risks for Customer Stickiness

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Signals, strengths and risks for Capital Efficiency

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Signals, strengths and risks for Resilience

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Signals, strengths and risks for Scale & Market Position

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

vs Industry Peers 87% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing AMBP's balance between Growth (46.8%), Profitability (32.7%), and Safety (20.4%). Growth 47% Safety 20% Profitability 33%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

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Growth

70th percentile vs peers
71
Key Signals
Rev Growth YoY 12.0% 72p EPS Growth YoY 59.3% 75p Revenue CAGR 3Y 5.4% 58p TSR 50.8% 84p
Strengths
  • Growth above peer median with strong metric coverage (85%)
  • TSR in top 20% of peers (50.8%, 84th percentile)
Risks

No significant risks identified for this axis.

Profitability

49th percentile vs peers
49
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

30th percentile vs peers
31
Key Signals
Strengths
Safety drilldowns are available to premium members.

Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A..

Loading valuation model...
Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

  • Recently listed companies (IPOs, SPACs)
  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$13.61
- - -
+187.7% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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