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Company Analysis

Algoma Steel Group Inc. ASTL

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for Algoma Steel Group Inc.

Overview of Algoma Steel Group Inc.

ASTL NGM
Basic Materials Steel Small Cap
Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL), is a Small Cap company, in the Steel industry, last closed at $4.62, about 256.1% undervalued vs fair value, -9.7% 1Y return, ranked 239/265 in sector.
Metrics Rev Growth -12.2% ROE -14.8% Gross Margin -4.7% Div Yield 5.04%
$4.62
-1.70%
As of April 28, 2026
Previous close • Vol 90d: 71.5%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$484.79M
Enterprise Value
$1.22B
Overall Score
View breakdown
Overall
Growth
Weak
Profitability
Weak
Health
Weak
Efficiency
Weak
Valuation
Weak
Growth
Weak
Profitability
Weak
Health
Weak
Efficiency
Weak
Valuation
Weak
Completeness: 82%
Confidence: 56%
Updated: Mar 8
Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://algoma.com
HQ Sault Sainte Marie, ON
Employees 2,818
Fiscal year Mar 31

Next Events

Earnings May 5 Estimated

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$13
$16
$19
Current: $4.62 +256% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Small Cap

Commodities & Mining - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
None
-12.2%%
Gross Profit
$-115.1M
-140.8%%
Operating Income
$-294.5M
-276.1%%
EBITDA
None
-161.6%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Commodities & Mining

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio
0.88x
Good

Free cash flow relative to net income

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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

$28.7M

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health critical
Significant cash flow inefficiencies identified. Multiple high-impact leaks require attention.
3
Active Leaks
0/3
Improving
0
High Impact
3
Critical
Locked Leak
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Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating Algoma Steel Group Inc.'s durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
25
/100
Developing
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors

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Pricing Power

Weak
9
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Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Commodities & Mining vs Industry Peers 95% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing ASTL's balance between Growth (23.9%), Profitability (28.1%), and Safety (47.9%). Growth 24% Safety 48% Profitability 28%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

3-Year Trend Analysis Locked
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Growth

21th percentile vs peers
22
Key Signals
EPS Growth YoY -60.1% 41p Rev Growth YoY -12.2% 20p Revenue CAGR 3Y -13.6% 16p TSR -39.5% 3p
Strengths
  • Superior capital returns - 2 return metrics above peer median
  • Strong liquidity position vs peers
  • Conservative leverage compared to industry peers
Risks
  • Rev Growth YoY in bottom 20% of peers (-12.2%)

Profitability

25th percentile vs peers
26
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

43th percentile vs peers
44
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for Algoma Steel Group Inc..

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Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

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  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$16.45
- - -
+256.1% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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