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Company Analysis

Blue Bird Corporation BLBD

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for Blue Bird Corporation

Overview of Blue Bird Corporation

BLBD NGM
Industrials Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery Framework: General Corporate Small Cap
Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD), is a Small Cap company, in the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry, last closed at $57.77, about 29.9% undervalued vs fair value, +14.3% 1Y return, placing in the top 10% of its sector.
Metrics P/E 14.8× Rev Growth 9.9% ROE 61.6% Gross Margin 20.5%
USD 57.77
3.34%
(Delayed)
• Vol 90d: 41.0%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$1.83B
Enterprise Value
$1.80B
Overall Score
View breakdown
Overall
Growth
Good
Profitability
Good
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Weak
Valuation
Fair
Growth
Good
Profitability
Good
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Weak
Valuation
Fair
Completeness: 88%
Confidence: 92%
Updated: Oct 31
Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://www.blue-bird.com
HQ Macon, GA
Employees 2,008
Fiscal year Sep 30

Next Events

Earnings Nov 25 Estimated

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$66
$75
$85
Current: $57.77 +30% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Small Cap

Corporate Free Cash Flow - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
$1.5B
9.9%%
Gross Profit
$303.5M
18.5%%
Operating Income
$167.2M
20%%
Net Income
$127.7M
21%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Corporate Free Cash Flow

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio FY2025
120.1%
Excellent

Operating Cash Flow / Net Income

FCF / Net Income - measures how well earnings convert to cash

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Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health healthy
Strong cash conversion with minimal leakage across profit-to-cash-to-value chain.
0
Active Leaks
0/0
Improving
0
High Impact
0
Critical
Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating Blue Bird Corporation's durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
67
/100
Moderate
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors
Full moat analysis

Key strengths

  • Cost Leadership Position Operating margin at 78.3th percentile with strong OpEx control demonstrates cost leadership.
  • Strong Interest Coverage & Conservative Leverage Debt serviceability is strong (score 0.91), with robust interest coverage.

Key risks

  • Revenue Volatility Signals Weak Stickiness Revenue volatility is high (stability score 0.27), suggesting weak customer stickiness.
  • Volatile Margins Suggest Cyclicality Margin volatility is high (stability score 0.35), suggesting cyclical exposure or competitive pressure.

The dashed ring is the peer median. Defense scores are percentile ranks against peers, so 50 is roughly the typical company in this group.

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Pricing Power

Moderate
52
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Signals, strengths and risks for Pricing Power

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Signals, strengths and risks for Cost Advantage

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Signals, strengths and risks for Customer Stickiness

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Signals, strengths and risks for Capital Efficiency

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Signals, strengths and risks for Resilience

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Signals, strengths and risks for Scale & Market Position

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

vs Industry Peers 95% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing BLBD's balance between Growth (34.0%), Profitability (34.4%), and Safety (31.6%). Growth 34% Safety 32% Profitability 34%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

3-Year Trend Analysis Locked
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Growth

75th percentile vs peers
75
Key Signals
Revenue CAGR 3Y 22.7% 86p Rev Growth YoY 9.9% 68p EPS Growth YoY 22.7% 60p TSR 1.56 96p
Strengths
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y in top 20% of peers (22.7%, 86th percentile)
  • Interest Coverage Ratio in top 20% of peers (24.54, 88th percentile)
  • Superior capital returns - 3 return metrics above peer median
  • Growth above peer median with strong metric coverage (85%)
Risks

No significant risks identified for this axis.

Profitability

75th percentile vs peers
76
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

69th percentile vs peers
70
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for Blue Bird Corporation.

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Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

  • Recently listed companies (IPOs, SPACs)
  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$75.06
- - -
+29.9% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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