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Company Analysis

CareDx, Inc. CDNA

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for CareDx, Inc.

Overview of CareDx, Inc

CDNA NGM
Healthcare Diagnostics & Research Framework: Medical Devices & Diagnostics Mid Cap
CareDx, Inc (CDNA), is a Mid Cap company, in the Diagnostics & Research industry, last closed at $85.88, about 88.8% overvalued vs fair value, +472.2% 1Y return, placing in the top 25% of its sector.
Metrics Rev Growth 13.8% ROE -6.3% Gross Margin 67.6%
USD 85.88
-1.75%
(Delayed)
• Vol 90d: 79.4%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$4.51B
Enterprise Value
$4.14B
Overall Score
View breakdown
Overall
Growth
Good
Profitability
Good
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Fair
Valuation
Fair
Growth
Good
Profitability
Good
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Fair
Valuation
Fair
Completeness: 82%
Confidence: 91%
Updated: Oct 31
Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://caredx.com
HQ Brisbane, CA
Employees 761
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

No upcoming events available.

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$8
$10
$11
Current: $85.88 -89% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Mid Cap

Medical Devices & Diagnostics - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Total Revenue
$379.8M
13.8%%
Gross Profit
$256.6M
14.5%%
Operating Income (GAAP)
-$30.8M
-175.5%%
EBITDA
-$4.7M
87%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Medical Devices & Diagnostics

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Gross Margin
67.6%
Excellent

Gross Profit / Revenue — primary moat signal for MedTech. ≥65% indicates IP-protected consumables with strong pricing power.

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Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health critical
Significant cash flow inefficiencies identified. Multiple high-impact leaks require attention.
1
Active Leaks
1/1
Improving
0
High Impact
1
Critical
Moat Analysis Medical Devices & Diagnostics

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating CareDx, Inc.'s durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
61
/100
Moderate
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors
Full moat analysis

Key strengths

  • Elite Gross Margins Gross margin quality is top-tier vs peers (score 0.84). This signals strong consumable attach-rate economics.
  • Stable Gross Margin Profile Gross margin stability is strong (score 0.78). Low volatility confirms durable consumable pricing.

Key risks

  • Thin Interest Coverage Interest coverage lags peers (score 0.34). Thin coverage limits M&A optionality and raises refinancing risk.
  • Declining Capital Returns ROIC durability is weak (score 0.28). Volatility or decline in returns is a leading moat erosion signal.

The dashed ring is the peer median. Defense scores are percentile ranks against peers, so 50 is roughly the typical company in this group.

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Pricing Power & Consumable Moat

Strong
82
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Signals, strengths and risks for Pricing Power & Consumable Moat

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Signals, strengths and risks for R&D Pipeline & Capital Returns

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Signals, strengths and risks for FCF Quality & Cash Conversion

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Signals, strengths and risks for Commercial Execution

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Signals, strengths and risks for Capital Structure & Resilience

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Signals, strengths and risks for Growth Durability

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Healthcare: MedTech (Devices & Supplies) vs Industry Peers 83% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing CDNA's balance between Growth (25.8%), Profitability (39.8%), and Safety (34.3%). Growth 26% Safety 34% Profitability 40%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

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Growth

42th percentile vs peers
42
Key Signals
Rev Growth YoY 13.8% 64p Revenue CAGR 3Y 5.7% 47p EPS Growth YoY -1.43 9p Asset Growth YoY -15.8% 18p
Strengths
  • Consistently strong margins across 3 metrics
  • Conservative leverage compared to industry peers
Risks
  • EPS Growth YoY in bottom 20% of peers (-1.43)

Profitability

65th percentile vs peers
65
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

56th percentile vs peers
56
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for CareDx, Inc..

Loading valuation model...
Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

  • Recently listed companies (IPOs, SPACs)
  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$9.61
- - -
-88.8% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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