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Company Analysis

Cosan S.A. CSAN

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for Cosan S.A.

Overview of Cosan S.A.

CSAN NYQ
Energy Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Framework: Commodities & Mining Mid Cap
Cosan S.A. (CSAN), is a Mid Cap company, in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry, last closed at $3.01, about 142.9% undervalued vs fair value, -35.7% 1Y return, ranked 94/260 in sector.
Metrics Rev Growth -8.0% ROE -120.0% Gross Margin 32.6% Div Yield 12.88%
USD 3.01
0.00%
(Delayed)
• Vol 90d: 50.5%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$2.84B
Enterprise Value
$15.21B
Overall Score
View breakdown
Overall
Growth
Fair
Profitability
Fair
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Fair
Valuation
Fair
Growth
Fair
Profitability
Fair
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Fair
Valuation
Fair
Completeness: 100%
Confidence: 97%
Updated: Oct 31
Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://www.cosan.com.br
HQ São Paulo, SP
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

Earnings Nov 13 Call: Nov 16

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$6
$7
$8
Current: $3.01 +143% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Mid Cap

Commodities & Mining - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
BRL 40.4B
-8%%
Gross Profit
BRL 13.2B
-3.9%%
Operating Income
BRL 10.7B
5.8%%
EBITDA
BRL 3.6B
-40.9%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Commodities & Mining

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio FY2025
-0.47x

Operating Cash Flow / Net Income

Free cash flow relative to net income - not meaningful while net income is negative

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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

BRL 2.7B
59.7% of FCF

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health critical
Significant cash flow inefficiencies identified. Multiple high-impact leaks require attention.
5
Active Leaks
1/5
Improving
1
High Impact
1
Critical
Locked Leak
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Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating Cosan S.A.'s durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
57
/100
Moderate
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors
Full moat analysis

Key strengths

  • Scale Supporting Profitability Profitability at scale is strong (score 1.00), demonstrating competitive advantages.
  • Margins Consistently Above Peers Gross margin at 32.6% (top 0%) and operating margin at 26.5% (top 0%) indicate strong pricing power.

Key risks

  • Elevated Debt Risk Debt serviceability is weak (score 0.18), raising refinancing risk.
  • Revenue Volatility Signals Weak Stickiness Revenue volatility is high (stability score 0.35), suggesting weak customer stickiness.

The dashed ring is the peer median. Defense scores are percentile ranks against peers, so 50 is roughly the typical company in this group.

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Pricing Power

Moderate
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Signals, strengths and risks for Pricing Power

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Signals, strengths and risks for Cost Advantage

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Signals, strengths and risks for Customer Stickiness

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Signals, strengths and risks for Capital Efficiency

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Signals, strengths and risks for Resilience

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Signals, strengths and risks for Scale & Market Position

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Commodities & Mining vs Industry Peers 95% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing CSAN's balance between Growth (34.3%), Profitability (35.4%), and Safety (30.3%). Growth 34% Safety 30% Profitability 35%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

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Growth

42th percentile vs peers
42
Key Signals
Revenue CAGR 3Y 0.9% 53p EPS Growth YoY 23.1% 61p Rev Growth YoY -8.0% 27p TSR -17.9% 19p
Strengths
  • Cash Flow to Debt Ratio in top 20% of peers (1.94, 85th percentile)
  • Consistently strong margins across 3 metrics
  • Strong liquidity position vs peers
Risks

No significant risks identified for this axis.

Profitability

43th percentile vs peers
44
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

37th percentile vs peers
37
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for Cosan S.A..

Loading valuation model...
Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

  • Recently listed companies (IPOs, SPACs)
  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$7.31
- - -
+142.9% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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