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Company Analysis

Expand Energy Corporation EXE

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for Expand Energy Corporation

Overview of Expand Energy Corporation

EXE NMS
Energy Oil & Gas E&P Framework: Commodities & Mining Large Cap
Expand Energy Corporation (EXE), is a Large Cap company, in the Oil & Gas E&P industry, last closed at $98.19, about 34.8% overvalued vs fair value, +2.0% 1Y return, ranked 80/260 in sector.
Metrics P/E 14.6× Rev Growth 188.8% ROE 10.1% Gross Margin 50.8% Div Yield 2.91%
USD 98.19
0.29%
(Delayed)
• Vol 90d: 26.6%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$21.28B
Enterprise Value
$24.35B
Overall Score
View breakdown
Overall
Growth
Good
Profitability
Fair
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Good
Valuation
Good
Growth
Good
Profitability
Fair
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Good
Valuation
Good
Completeness: 100%
Confidence: 61%
Updated: Sep 12
Top Beats
No strong beats yet

Quick Facts

Website https://www.expandenergy.com
HQ Oklahoma City, OK
Employees 1,600
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

Earnings Oct 27 Estimated

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$57
$64
$71
Current: $98.19 -35% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Large Cap

Commodities & Mining - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
$12.2B
188.8%%
Gross Profit
$6.2B
443.2%%
Operating Income
$2.8B
497.6%%
EBITDA
$5.5B
440%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Commodities & Mining

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio FY2025
0.90x
Good

Operating Cash Flow / Net Income

Free cash flow relative to net income

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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

$865.0M
52.6% of FCF

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health some concerns
Moderate efficiency issues detected. Review active leaks below for improvement areas.
2
Active Leaks
2/2
Improving
0
High Impact
0
Critical
Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating Expand Energy Corporation's durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
46
/100
Developing
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors
Full moat analysis

Key strengths

  • ROIC Sustainably Above Peers ROIC at 71.8th percentile exceeds peers and WACC, demonstrating superior capital allocation.

Key risks

  • Revenue Volatility Signals Weak Stickiness Revenue volatility is high (stability score 0.21), suggesting weak customer stickiness.
  • Volatile Margins Suggest Cyclicality Margin volatility is high (stability score 0.28), suggesting cyclical exposure or competitive pressure.

The dashed ring is the peer median. Defense scores are percentile ranks against peers, so 50 is roughly the typical company in this group.

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Pricing Power

Developing
49
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Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Commodities & Mining vs Industry Peers 97% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing EXE's balance between Growth (38.2%), Profitability (34.4%), and Safety (27.4%). Growth 38% Safety 27% Profitability 34%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

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Growth

68th percentile vs peers
69
Key Signals
Rev Growth YoY 1.89 96p EPS Growth YoY 2.66 93p Revenue CAGR 3Y 2.1% 55p TSR 14.1% 48p EPS CAGR 3Y -39.3% 15p
Strengths
  • Rev Growth YoY in top 20% of peers (1.89, 96th percentile)
  • EPS Growth YoY in top 20% of peers (2.66, 93th percentile)
  • Growth above peer median with strong metric coverage (100%)
  • Consistently strong margins across 7 metrics
Risks

No significant risks identified for this axis.

Profitability

61th percentile vs peers
62
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

49th percentile vs peers
49
Key Signals
Strengths
Safety drilldowns are available to premium members.

Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for Expand Energy Corporation.

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Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

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  • Shell companies or holding companies
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$64.03
- - -
-34.8% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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