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Company Analysis

Greenfire Resources Ltd. GFR

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for Greenfire Resources Ltd.

Overview of Greenfire Resources Ltd.

GFR NYQ
Energy Oil & Gas E&P Framework: Commodities & Mining Small Cap
Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR), is a Small Cap company, in the Oil & Gas E&P industry, last closed at $6.15, about 65.2% overvalued vs fair value, +40.3% 1Y return, ranked 175/260 in sector.
Metrics P/E 9.9× Rev Growth -26.7% ROE 4.8% Gross Margin 44.4%
USD 6.15
-8.21%
(Delayed)
• Vol 90d: 50.8%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$1.48B
Enterprise Value
$1.49B
Overall Score
View breakdown
Overall
Growth
Fair
Profitability
Weak
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Weak
Valuation
Weak
Growth
Fair
Profitability
Weak
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Weak
Valuation
Weak
Completeness: 88%
Confidence: 92%
Updated: Oct 31
Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://www.greenfireres.com
HQ Calgary, AB
Employees 193
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

Earnings Nov 3 Estimated

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$2
$2
$2
Current: $6.15 -65% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Small Cap

Commodities & Mining - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
CAD 603.3M
-26.7%%
Gross Profit
CAD 268.0M
-30%%
Operating Income
CAD 59.3M
-58.8%%
EBITDA
CAD 181.2M
9.3%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Commodities & Mining

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio FY2025
0.52x
Fair

Operating Cash Flow / Net Income

Free cash flow relative to net income

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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health some concerns
Moderate efficiency issues detected. Review active leaks below for improvement areas.
3
Active Leaks
1/3
Improving
0
High Impact
0
Critical
Locked Leak
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Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating Greenfire Resources Ltd.'s durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
41
/100
Developing
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors
Full moat analysis

Key strengths

  • Strong Liquidity Buffer Liquidity position is strong (score 0.74), providing operational cushion.

Key risks

  • Revenue Volatility Signals Weak Stickiness Revenue volatility is high (stability score 0.12), suggesting weak customer stickiness.
  • Below-Peer Operating Efficiency Operating margin at 31.7th percentile indicates below-peer efficiency.

The dashed ring is the peer median. Defense scores are percentile ranks against peers, so 50 is roughly the typical company in this group.

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Pricing Power

Developing
49
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Signals, strengths and risks for Pricing Power

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Signals, strengths and risks for Cost Advantage

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Signals, strengths and risks for Customer Stickiness

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Signals, strengths and risks for Capital Efficiency

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Signals, strengths and risks for Resilience

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Signals, strengths and risks for Scale & Market Position

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Commodities & Mining vs Industry Peers 100% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing GFR's balance between Growth (17.0%), Profitability (37.8%), and Safety (45.2%). Growth 17% Safety 45% Profitability 38%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

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Growth

23th percentile vs peers
23
Key Signals
TSR 45.3% 70p EPS Growth YoY -61.3% 24p EPS CAGR 3Y -27.3% 31p Revenue CAGR 3Y -15.5% 15p Rev Growth YoY -26.7% 10p
Strengths
  • D/E Ratio in top 20% of peers (0.5%, 86th percentile)
  • Net Debt/EBITDA in top 20% of peers (-23.2%, 81th percentile)
  • Conservative leverage compared to industry peers
Risks
  • Rev Growth YoY in bottom 20% of peers (-26.7%)
  • Growth below peer median (percentile: 23)

Profitability

52th percentile vs peers
52
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

62th percentile vs peers
62
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for Greenfire Resources Ltd..

Loading valuation model...
Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

  • Recently listed companies (IPOs, SPACs)
  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$2.14
- - -
-65.2% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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