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Company Analysis

Green Plains, Inc. GPRE

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for Green Plains, Inc.

Overview of Green Plains Inc.

GPRE NMS
Basic Materials Chemicals Framework: Commodities & Mining Small Cap
Green Plains Inc. (GPRE), is a Small Cap company, in the Chemicals industry, last closed at $15.00, about 174.8% undervalued vs fair value, +168.8% 1Y return, ranked 223/266 in sector.
Metrics Rev Growth -14.9% ROE -14.9% Gross Margin 6.6% Div Yield 0.11%
USD 15.00
0.60%
(Delayed)
• Vol 90d: 56.3%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$1.04B
Enterprise Value
$1.32B
Overall Score
View breakdown
Overall
Growth
Weak
Profitability
Weak
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Fair
Valuation
Weak
Growth
Weak
Profitability
Weak
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Fair
Valuation
Weak
Completeness: 82%
Confidence: 89%
Updated: Mar 8
Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://www.gpreinc.com
HQ Omaha, NE
Employees 642
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

No upcoming events available.

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$36
$41
$47
Current: $15.00 +175% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Small Cap

Corporate Free Cash Flow - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
$2.1B
-14.9%%
Gross Profit
$136.9M
5%%
Operating Income
$-84.2M
-7.7%%
Net Income
$-121.3M
-47%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Corporate Free Cash Flow

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio
-60.7%
Poor

FCF / Net Income - measures how well earnings convert to cash

Locked Metric
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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

$241.0M
327.2% of FCF

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health critical
Significant cash flow inefficiencies identified. Multiple high-impact leaks require attention.
4
Active Leaks
2/4
Improving
0
High Impact
2
Critical
Locked Leak
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Locked Leak
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Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating Green Plains, Inc.'s durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
35
/100
Developing
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors

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Pricing Power

Developing
46
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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Generic Industrial / Default vs Industry Peers 95% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing GPRE's balance between Growth (20.0%), Profitability (23.3%), and Safety (56.8%). Growth 20% Safety 57% Profitability 23%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

3-Year Trend Analysis Locked
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Growth

20th percentile vs peers
20
Key Signals
EPS Growth YoY -39.0% 35p Rev Growth YoY -14.9% 18p TSR 3.5% 29p Revenue CAGR 3Y -17.0% 7p
Strengths
  • Net Debt/EBITDA in top 20% of peers (8.75, 94th percentile)
  • Conservative leverage compared to industry peers
Risks
  • Growth in bottom 20% of peers (percentile: 20)
  • Rev Growth YoY in bottom 20% of peers (-14.9%)

Profitability

23th percentile vs peers
24
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

57th percentile vs peers
58
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for Green Plains, Inc..

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Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

  • Recently listed companies (IPOs, SPACs)
  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$41.22
- - -
+174.8% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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