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Company Analysis

Harley-Davidson, Inc. HOG

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Overview of Harley-Davidson, Inc.

HOG NYQ
Consumer Cyclical Recreational Vehicles Framework: General Corporate Mid Cap
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG), is a Mid Cap company, in the Recreational Vehicles industry, last closed at $25.64, about 158.1% undervalued vs fair value, +6.0% 1Y return, ranked 317/539 in sector.
Metrics Rev Growth -13.8% ROE 10.7% Gross Margin 30.2% Div Yield 3.57%
USD 25.64
-0.39%
(Delayed)
• Vol 90d: 44.2%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$2.71B
Enterprise Value
$2.58B
Overall Score
View breakdown
Overall
Growth
Good
Profitability
Good
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Good
Valuation
Weak
Growth
Good
Profitability
Good
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Good
Valuation
Weak
Completeness: 82%
Confidence: 55%
Updated: Mar 8
Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://www.harley-davidson.co...
HQ Milwaukee, WI
Employees 5,500
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

Dividend Jun 25
Earnings Jul 29 Estimated

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$58
$66
$75
Current: $25.64 +158% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Mid Cap

Corporate Free Cash Flow - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
$4.5B
-13.8%%
Gross Profit
$1.4B
-25.2%%
Operating Income
$386.6M
-7.2%%
Net Income
$338.7M
-25.6%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Corporate Free Cash Flow

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio
256.0%
Excellent

FCF / Net Income - measures how well earnings convert to cash

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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

$674.4M
77.8% of FCF

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health some concerns
Moderate efficiency issues detected. Review active leaks below for improvement areas.
3
Active Leaks
2/3
Improving
0
High Impact
0
Critical
Locked Leak
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Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
58
/100
Moderate
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors

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Pricing Power

Moderate
58
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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Generic Industrial / Default vs Industry Peers 100% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing HOG's balance between Growth (13.8%), Profitability (39.2%), and Safety (47.0%). Growth 14% Safety 47% Profitability 39%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

3-Year Trend Analysis Locked
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Growth

21th percentile vs peers
22
Key Signals
EPS Growth YoY -29.3% 29p EPS CAGR 3Y -6.4% 37p Rev Growth YoY -13.8% 14p Revenue CAGR 3Y -8.1% 15p TSR -29.6% 21p
Strengths
  • Interest Coverage Ratio in top 20% of peers (17.82, 85th percentile)
  • Net Debt/EBITDA in top 20% of peers (7.67, 86th percentile)
  • Cash Flow to Debt Ratio in top 20% of peers (1.52, 81th percentile)
Risks
  • Rev Growth YoY in bottom 20% of peers (-13.8%)
  • Growth below peer median (percentile: 21)

Profitability

61th percentile vs peers
62
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

74th percentile vs peers
74
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for Harley-Davidson, Inc..

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Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

  • Recently listed companies (IPOs, SPACs)
  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$66.17
- - -
+158.1% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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