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Company Analysis

Harley-Davidson, Inc. HOG

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Overview of Harley-Davidson, Inc.

HOG NYQ
Consumer Cyclical Recreational Vehicles Framework: General Corporate Mid Cap
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG), is a Mid Cap company, in the Recreational Vehicles industry, last closed at $28.45, about 137.9% undervalued vs fair value, +9.3% 1Y return, ranked 201/548 in sector.
Metrics P/E 7.3× Rev Growth -13.8% ROE 10.7% Gross Margin 30.0% Div Yield 3.57%
USD 28.45
2.26%
(Delayed)
• Vol 90d: 42.1%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$2.62B
Enterprise Value
$3.01B
Overall Score
View breakdown
Overall
Growth
Weak
Profitability
Weak
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Weak
Valuation
Fair
Growth
Weak
Profitability
Weak
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Weak
Valuation
Fair
Completeness: 82%
Confidence: 86%
Updated: Jul 5
Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://www.harley-davidson.co...
HQ Milwaukee, WI
Employees 5,500
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

Earnings Jul 29 Estimated

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$60
$68
$76
Current: $28.45 +138% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Mid Cap

Corporate Free Cash Flow - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
$4.5B
-13.8%%
Gross Profit
$1.3B
-25.8%%
Operating Income
$386.6M
-7.2%%
Net Income
$338.7M
-25.6%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Corporate Free Cash Flow

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio FY2025
122.6%
Excellent

Operating Cash Flow / Net Income

FCF / Net Income - measures how well earnings convert to cash

Locked Metric
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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

$3.0B
732.4% of FCF

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health critical
Significant cash flow inefficiencies identified. Multiple high-impact leaks require attention.
3
Active Leaks
2/3
Improving
0
High Impact
1
Critical
Locked Leak
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Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
58
/100
Moderate
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors

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Pricing Power

Moderate
56
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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Generic Industrial / Default vs Industry Peers 100% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing HOG's balance between Growth (15.5%), Profitability (47.8%), and Safety (36.7%). Growth 16% Safety 37% Profitability 48%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

3-Year Trend Analysis Locked
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Growth

20th percentile vs peers
21
Key Signals
EPS Growth YoY -18.8% 34p Revenue CAGR 3Y -8.1% 16p Rev Growth YoY -13.8% 13p EPS CAGR 3Y -17.4% 25p TSR -29.6% 18p
Strengths
  • Interest Coverage Ratio in top 20% of peers (14.72, 83th percentile)
  • Consistently strong margins across 6 metrics
  • Strong liquidity position vs peers
Risks
  • Growth in bottom 20% of peers (percentile: 20)
  • Rev Growth YoY in bottom 20% of peers (-13.8%)

Profitability

63th percentile vs peers
63
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

48th percentile vs peers
49
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for Harley-Davidson, Inc..

Loading valuation model...
Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

  • Recently listed companies (IPOs, SPACs)
  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$67.67
- - -
+137.9% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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