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Company Analysis

National Fuel Gas Company NFG

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for National Fuel Gas Company

Overview of National Fuel Gas Company

NFG NYQ
Energy Oil & Gas Integrated Framework: Commodities & Mining Mid Cap
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG), is a Mid Cap company, in the Oil & Gas Integrated industry, last closed at $79.67, about 55.2% overvalued vs fair value, +2.2% 1Y return, ranked 104/260 in sector.
Metrics P/E 16.3× Rev Growth 17.1% ROE 17.5% Gross Margin 46.1% Div Yield 2.26%
USD 79.67
0.15%
(Delayed)
• Vol 90d: 20.8%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$7.57B
Enterprise Value
$9.90B
Overall Score
View breakdown
Overall
Growth
Good
Profitability
Fair
Health
Weak
Efficiency
Good
Valuation
Good
Growth
Good
Profitability
Fair
Health
Weak
Efficiency
Good
Valuation
Good
Completeness: 94%
Confidence: 94%
Updated: Oct 31
Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://www.nationalfuel.com
HQ Williamsville, NY
Employees 2,322
Fiscal year Sep 30

Next Events

Earnings Nov 4 Call: Nov 5

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$32
$36
$39
Current: $79.67 -55% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Mid Cap

Commodities & Mining - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
$2.3B
17.1%%
Gross Profit
$1.0B
28.4%%
Operating Income
$813.5M
287.9%%
EBITDA
$1.3B
91.3%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Commodities & Mining

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio FY2025
0.36x
Poor

Operating Cash Flow / Net Income

Free cash flow relative to net income

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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

$247.5M
132.2% of FCF

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health critical
Significant cash flow inefficiencies identified. Multiple high-impact leaks require attention.
5
Active Leaks
0/5
Improving
1
High Impact
1
Critical
Locked Leak
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Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating National Fuel Gas Company's durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
66
/100
Moderate
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors
Full moat analysis

Key strengths

  • Revenue Growth Consistent Revenue growth volatility is low (stability score 1.00), suggesting sticky customer base.
  • Cash Generation Consistent Cash generation is consistent (score 0.79), indicating reliable business model.

Key risks

  • Elevated Debt Risk Debt serviceability is weak (score 0.35), raising refinancing risk.
  • Liquidity Concerns Liquidity is concerning (score 0.24), raising questions about short-term obligations.

The dashed ring is the peer median. Defense scores are percentile ranks against peers, so 50 is roughly the typical company in this group.

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Pricing Power

Moderate
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Signals, strengths and risks for Pricing Power

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Signals, strengths and risks for Cost Advantage

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Signals, strengths and risks for Customer Stickiness

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Signals, strengths and risks for Capital Efficiency

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Signals, strengths and risks for Resilience

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Signals, strengths and risks for Scale & Market Position

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Commodities & Mining vs Industry Peers 100% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing NFG's balance between Growth (39.9%), Profitability (42.0%), and Safety (18.0%). Growth 40% Safety 18% Profitability 42%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

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Growth

71th percentile vs peers
71
Key Signals
Rev Growth YoY 17.1% 71p EPS Growth YoY 5.77 95p Revenue CAGR 3Y 1.4% 54p EPS CAGR 3Y -2.6% 63p TSR 55.8% 73p
Strengths
  • EPS Growth YoY in top 20% of peers (5.77, 95th percentile)
  • Superior capital returns - 3 return metrics above peer median
  • Growth above peer median with strong metric coverage (100%)
  • Operating Margin in top 20% of peers (35.7%, 81th percentile)
Risks

No significant risks identified for this axis.

Profitability

74th percentile vs peers
75
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

32th percentile vs peers
32
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for National Fuel Gas Company.

Loading valuation model...
Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

  • Recently listed companies (IPOs, SPACs)
  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$35.67
- - -
-55.2% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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