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Company Analysis

National Grid Transco, PLC Nati NGG

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for National Grid Transco, PLC Nati

Overview of National Grid plc

NGG NYQ
Utilities Utilities - Regulated Electric Framework: Regulated Utilities Large Cap
National Grid plc (NGG), is a Large Cap company, in the Utilities - Regulated Electric industry, last closed at $84.42, about 49.7% overvalued vs fair value, +10.7% 1Y return, placing in the top 10% of its sector.
Metrics P/E 19.7× Rev Growth -3.8% ROE 8.4% Gross Margin 79.8% Div Yield 2.46%
USD 84.42
0.56%
(Delayed)
• Vol 90d: 19.8%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$87.78B
Enterprise Value
$149.05B
Overall Score
View breakdown
Overall
Growth
Fair
Profitability
Good
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Good
Valuation
Good
Growth
Fair
Profitability
Good
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Good
Valuation
Good
Completeness: 94%
Confidence: 94%
Updated: Oct 31
Top Beats
No strong beats yet

Quick Facts

Website https://www.nationalgrid.com
HQ London
Employees 31,654
Fiscal year Mar 31

Next Events

Earnings Nov 5

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$35
$42
$49
Current: $84.42 -50% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Large Cap

Regulated Utilities - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Total Revenue
GBP 17.7B
-3.8%%
EBITDA
GBP 8.1B
1.8%%
Operating Income (EBIT)
GBP 5.4B
10.1%%
Net Income
GBP 3.2B
11.7%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Regulated Utilities

Quality & Reliability Indicators

FFO / Total Debt
11.7%
Fair

FFO ÷ Total Debt — the primary S&P/Moody's credit metric for utility ratings. >15% is investment-grade; >20% signals strong credit quality.

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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

GBP 1.6B
29.6% of FFO

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health critical
Significant cash flow inefficiencies identified. Multiple high-impact leaks require attention.
4
Active Leaks
1/4
Improving
0
High Impact
1
Critical
Locked Leak
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Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Regulated Utilities

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating National Grid Transco, PLC Nati's durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
63
/100
Moderate
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors
Full moat analysis

Key strengths

  • Strong Regulated Margins Regulated margin level is strong (score 0.91), indicating favourable rate-case outcomes.
  • Strong Operating Cash Generation Operating cash generation is strong (score 0.91), supporting dividend sustainability.

Key risks

  • Below-Allowed ROE Return on equity is weak vs peers (score 0.38), implying the company may not be earning its allowed return.
  • Volatile Rate-Base Returns ROE stability is poor (score 0.18), reflecting inconsistent regulatory outcomes.

The dashed ring is the peer median. Defense scores are percentile ranks against peers, so 50 is roughly the typical company in this group.

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Regulatory Franchise

Moderate
68
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Signals, strengths and risks for Regulatory Franchise

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Signals, strengths and risks for Rate-Base Return Quality

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Signals, strengths and risks for Dividend Sustainability

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Signals, strengths and risks for Capital Structure Discipline

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Signals, strengths and risks for Operational Efficiency

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Signals, strengths and risks for Essential Service Resilience

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Regulated Utilities vs Industry Peers 95% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing NGG's balance between Growth (10.3%), Profitability (50.5%), and Safety (39.3%). Growth 10% Safety 39% Profitability 50%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

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Growth

13th percentile vs peers
13
Key Signals
Asset Growth YoY 1.4% 13p Equity Growth YoY 4.0% 30p Rev Growth YoY -3.8% 11p EPS Growth YoY -70.9% 8p Revenue CAGR 3Y -6.5% 8p
Strengths
  • Operating Margin in top 20% of peers (30.7%, 86th percentile)
  • Operating Cash Flow Margin in top 20% of peers (44.3%, 88th percentile)
  • Consistently strong margins across 3 metrics
Risks
  • Growth in bottom 20% of peers (percentile: 13)
  • Asset Growth YoY in bottom 20% of peers (1.4%)
  • Rev Growth YoY in bottom 20% of peers (-3.8%)
  • EPS Growth YoY in bottom 20% of peers (-70.9%)

Profitability

65th percentile vs peers
65
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

50th percentile vs peers
51
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for National Grid Transco, PLC Nati.

Loading valuation model...
Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

  • Recently listed companies (IPOs, SPACs)
  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$42.46
- - -
-49.7% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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