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Company Analysis

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. NOG

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

Overview of Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

NOG NYQ
Energy Oil & Gas E&P Framework: Commodities & Mining Mid Cap
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG), is a Mid Cap company, in the Oil & Gas E&P industry, last closed at $25.80, about 13.8% overvalued vs fair value, +26.0% 1Y return, ranked 219/260 in sector.
Metrics P/E 55.0× Rev Growth -3.2% ROE 1.7% Gross Margin 32.2% Div Yield 8.28%
USD 25.80
-8.99%
(Delayed)
• Vol 90d: 49.7%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$2.74B
Enterprise Value
$5.41B
Overall Score
View breakdown
Overall
Growth
Fair
Profitability
Fair
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Weak
Valuation
Fair
Growth
Fair
Profitability
Fair
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Weak
Valuation
Fair
Completeness: 100%
Confidence: 96%
Updated: Oct 31
Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://www.noginc.com
HQ Minnetonka, MN
Employees 49
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

Earnings Nov 5 Call: Nov 6

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$19
$22
$25
Current: $25.80 -14% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Mid Cap

Commodities & Mining - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
$2.1B
-3.2%%
Gross Profit
$675.2M
-19.2%%
Operating Income
$245.8M
-70.7%%
EBITDA
$1.0B
-33.5%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Commodities & Mining

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio FY2025
6.52x
Excellent

Operating Cash Flow / Net Income

Free cash flow relative to net income

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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

$230.4M
91.1% of FCF

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health significant issues
Overall assessment of cash flow efficiency and conversion quality.
5
Active Leaks
2/5
Improving
1
High Impact
0
Critical
Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
44
/100
Developing
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors
Full moat analysis

Key strengths

  • Operating Leverage in Effect Operating leverage is evident (score 0.85), with margins expanding over time.
  • Strong Liquidity Buffer Liquidity position is strong (score 0.62), providing operational cushion.

Key risks

  • ROIC Below WACC or Peers ROIC at 34.6th percentile suggests inefficient capital deployment.
  • Commodity Pressure / Weak Differentiation Gross margin at 32.1th percentile with high volatility suggests weak pricing power or commoditized products.

The dashed ring is the peer median. Defense scores are percentile ranks against peers, so 50 is roughly the typical company in this group.

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Pricing Power

Developing
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Signals, strengths and risks for Pricing Power

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Signals, strengths and risks for Cost Advantage

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Signals, strengths and risks for Customer Stickiness

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Signals, strengths and risks for Capital Efficiency

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Signals, strengths and risks for Resilience

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Signals, strengths and risks for Scale & Market Position

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Commodities & Mining vs Industry Peers 100% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing NOG's balance between Growth (25.7%), Profitability (45.5%), and Safety (28.8%). Growth 26% Safety 29% Profitability 45%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

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Growth

29th percentile vs peers
30
Key Signals
Revenue CAGR 3Y 1.8% 54p Rev Growth YoY -3.2% 39p EPS Growth YoY -92.4% 17p TSR -37.4% 6p EPS CAGR 3Y -64.6% 1p
Strengths
  • Consistently strong margins across 3 metrics
Risks
  • EPS Growth YoY in bottom 20% of peers (-92.4%)

Profitability

52th percentile vs peers
53
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

33th percentile vs peers
33
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for Northern Oil and Gas, Inc..

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Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

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  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$22.23
- - -
-13.8% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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