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Company Analysis

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. ZTO

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

Overview of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

ZTO NYQ
Industrials Integrated Freight & Logistics Framework: General Corporate Large Cap
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO), is a Large Cap company, in the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry, last closed at $20.35, about 15.8% overvalued vs fair value, +7.7% 1Y return, placing in the top 25% of its sector.
Metrics P/E 13.2× Rev Growth 10.9% ROE 14.1% Gross Margin 25.0% Div Yield 3.21%
USD 20.35
0.99%
(Delayed)
• Vol 90d: 25.5%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$15.47B
Enterprise Value
$17.27B
Overall Score
View breakdown
Overall
Growth
Good
Profitability
Good
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Fair
Valuation
Good
Growth
Good
Profitability
Good
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Fair
Valuation
Good
Completeness: 100%
Confidence: 97%
Updated: Oct 31
Top Beats
No strong beats yet

Quick Facts

Website https://www.zto.com
HQ Shanghai
Employees 24,477
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

Earnings Nov 17 Call: Nov 18

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$15
$17
$19
Current: $20.35 -16% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Large Cap

Corporate Free Cash Flow - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
CNY 49.1B
10.9%%
Gross Profit
CNY 12.3B
-10.5%%
Operating Income
CNY 10.5B
-11.1%%
Net Income
CNY 9.1B
3%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Corporate Free Cash Flow

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio FY2025
64.9%
Fair

Operating Cash Flow / Net Income

FCF / Net Income - measures how well earnings convert to cash

Locked Metric
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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

CNY 10.6B
179.0% of FCF

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health some concerns
Moderate efficiency issues detected. Review active leaks below for improvement areas.
3
Active Leaks
0/3
Improving
0
High Impact
0
Critical
Locked Leak
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Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
83
/100
Strong
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors
Full moat analysis

Key strengths

  • Margins Consistently Above Peers Gross margin at 25.0% (top 19%) and operating margin at 21.3% (top 0%) indicate strong pricing power.
  • Revenue Growth Consistent Revenue growth volatility is low (stability score 1.00), suggesting sticky customer base.

The dashed ring is the peer median. Defense scores are percentile ranks against peers, so 50 is roughly the typical company in this group.

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Pricing Power

Strong
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Signals, strengths and risks for Pricing Power

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Signals, strengths and risks for Cost Advantage

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Signals, strengths and risks for Customer Stickiness

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Signals, strengths and risks for Capital Efficiency

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Signals, strengths and risks for Resilience

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Signals, strengths and risks for Scale & Market Position

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

vs Industry Peers 100% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing ZTO's balance between Growth (31.4%), Profitability (38.6%), and Safety (30.0%). Growth 31% Safety 30% Profitability 39%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

3-Year Trend Analysis Locked
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Growth

65th percentile vs peers
65
Key Signals
Rev Growth YoY 10.9% 70p Revenue CAGR 3Y 11.5% 74p EPS Growth YoY 5.2% 48p EPS CAGR 3Y 10.1% 63p TSR 10.3% 59p
Strengths
  • Interest Coverage Ratio in top 20% of peers (45.46, 92th percentile)
  • Superior capital returns - 3 return metrics above peer median
  • Growth above peer median with strong metric coverage (100%)
Risks

No significant risks identified for this axis.

Profitability

80th percentile vs peers
80
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

62th percentile vs peers
62
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc..

Loading valuation model...
Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

  • Recently listed companies (IPOs, SPACs)
  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$17.13
- - -
-15.8% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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