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Company Analysis

Dollar Tree, Inc. DLTR

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for Dollar Tree, Inc.

Overview of Dollar Tree, Inc.

DLTR NMS
Consumer Defensive Discount Stores Framework: General Corporate Large Cap
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR), is a Large Cap company, in the Discount Stores industry, last closed at $138.60, about 20.8% overvalued vs fair value, +35.9% 1Y return, ranked 88/246 in sector.
Metrics P/E 18.9× Rev Growth 10.4% ROE 33.2% Gross Margin 36.4%
USD 138.60
3.53%
(Delayed)
• Vol 90d: 34.8%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$26.01B
Enterprise Value
$27.88B
Overall Score
View breakdown
Overall
Growth
Fair
Profitability
Fair
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Good
Valuation
Weak
Growth
Fair
Profitability
Fair
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Good
Valuation
Weak
Completeness: 82%
Confidence: 89%
Updated: Oct 31
Top Beats
No strong beats yet

Quick Facts

Website https://www.dollartree.com
HQ Chesapeake, VA
Employees 64,434
Fiscal year Jan 31

Next Events

Earnings Dec 2 Estimated

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$91
$110
$128
Current: $138.60 -21% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Large Cap

Corporate Free Cash Flow - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Revenue
$19.4B
10.4%%
Gross Profit
$7.1B
12.3%%
Operating Income
$1.7B
13.1%%
Net Income
$1.3B
142.3%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Corporate Free Cash Flow

Quality & Reliability Indicators

Cash Conversion Ratio FY2026
109.2%
Excellent

Operating Cash Flow / Net Income

FCF / Net Income - measures how well earnings convert to cash

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Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health healthy
Strong cash conversion with minimal leakage across profit-to-cash-to-value chain.
1
Active Leaks
0/1
Improving
0
High Impact
0
Critical
Moat Analysis Corporate Default

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating Dollar Tree, Inc.'s durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
63
/100
Moderate
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors
Full moat analysis

Key strengths

  • ROIC Sustainably Above Peers ROIC at 88.2th percentile exceeds peers and WACC, demonstrating superior capital allocation.
  • Strong Interest Coverage & Conservative Leverage Debt serviceability is strong (score 0.74), with robust interest coverage.

Key risks

  • Revenue Volatility Signals Weak Stickiness Revenue volatility is high (stability score 0.36), suggesting weak customer stickiness.

The dashed ring is the peer median. Defense scores are percentile ranks against peers, so 50 is roughly the typical company in this group.

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Pricing Power

Moderate
66
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Signals, strengths and risks for Pricing Power

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Signals, strengths and risks for Cost Advantage

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Signals, strengths and risks for Customer Stickiness

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Signals, strengths and risks for Capital Efficiency

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Signals, strengths and risks for Resilience

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Signals, strengths and risks for Scale & Market Position

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

vs Industry Peers 100% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing DLTR's balance between Growth (36.8%), Profitability (40.5%), and Safety (22.7%). Growth 37% Safety 23% Profitability 41%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

3-Year Trend Analysis Locked
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Growth

65th percentile vs peers
66
Key Signals
Rev Growth YoY 10.4% 69p EPS Growth YoY 1.44 92p Revenue CAGR 3Y 8.0% 66p EPS CAGR 3Y -4.8% 39p TSR -9.8% 39p
Strengths
  • EPS Growth YoY in top 20% of peers (1.44, 92th percentile)
  • Interest Coverage Ratio in top 20% of peers (20.06, 86th percentile)
  • Superior capital returns - 3 return metrics above peer median
  • Growth above peer median with strong metric coverage (100%)
Risks

No significant risks identified for this axis.

Profitability

72th percentile vs peers
73
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

40th percentile vs peers
41
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for Dollar Tree, Inc..

Loading valuation model...
Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

  • Recently listed companies (IPOs, SPACs)
  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$109.71
- - -
-20.8% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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