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Company Analysis

TransAlta Corporation TAC

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for TransAlta Corporation

Overview of TransAlta Corporation

TAC NYQ
Utilities Utilities - Independent Power Producers Framework: Regulated Utilities Mid Cap
TransAlta Corporation (TAC), is a Mid Cap company, in the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry, last closed at $12.77, about 38.1% overvalued vs fair value, -14.5% 1Y return, ranked 31/117 in sector.
Metrics Rev Growth -15.5% ROE -8.8% Gross Margin 59.0% Div Yield 2.45%
USD 12.77
-1.62%
(Delayed)
• Vol 90d: 35.0%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$4.03B
Enterprise Value
$7.57B
Overall Score
View breakdown
Overall
Growth
Fair
Profitability
Fair
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Fair
Valuation
Fair
Growth
Fair
Profitability
Fair
Health
Fair
Efficiency
Fair
Valuation
Fair
Completeness: 100%
Confidence: 98%
Updated: Oct 31
Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://www.transalta.com
HQ Calgary, AB
Employees 1,165
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

Dividend Dec 1

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$6
$8
$9
Current: $12.77 -38% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Mid Cap

Regulated Utilities - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Total Revenue
CAD 2.4B
-15.5%%
EBITDA
CAD 704.0M
-36%%
Operating Income (EBIT)
CAD 140.0M
-76.1%%
Net Income
-CAD 138.0M
-160.3%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Regulated Utilities

Quality & Reliability Indicators

FFO / Total Debt
9.4%
Poor

FFO ÷ Total Debt — the primary S&P/Moody's credit metric for utility ratings. >15% is investment-grade; >20% signals strong credit quality.

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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

CAD 150.0M
36.7% of FFO

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health critical
Significant cash flow inefficiencies identified. Multiple high-impact leaks require attention.
2
Active Leaks
0/2
Improving
0
High Impact
1
Critical
Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Regulated Utilities

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating TransAlta Corporation's durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
48
/100
Developing
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors
Full moat analysis

Key strengths

  • Consistent Dividend Coverage Cash flow payout coverage is stable (score 0.77), reducing dividend cut risk.

Key risks

  • Margin Pressure from Rate Cases Regulated margin level is weak (score 0.39), which may signal regulatory headwinds.
  • Below-Allowed ROE Return on equity is weak vs peers (score 0.34), implying the company may not be earning its allowed return.

The dashed ring is the peer median. Defense scores are percentile ranks against peers, so 50 is roughly the typical company in this group.

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Regulatory Franchise

Developing
45
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Signals, strengths and risks for Regulatory Franchise

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Signals, strengths and risks for Rate-Base Return Quality

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Signals, strengths and risks for Dividend Sustainability

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Signals, strengths and risks for Capital Structure Discipline

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Signals, strengths and risks for Operational Efficiency

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Signals, strengths and risks for Essential Service Resilience

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Regulated Utilities vs Industry Peers 100% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing TAC's balance between Growth (10.2%), Profitability (37.8%), and Safety (52.0%). Growth 10% Safety 52% Profitability 38%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

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Growth

5th percentile vs peers
6
Key Signals
Asset Growth YoY -8.8% 6p Rev Growth YoY -15.5% 6p Revenue CAGR 3Y -6.9% 7p Equity Growth YoY -43.2% 5p EPS Growth YoY -2.09 3p
Strengths
  • Cash Flow to Debt Ratio in top 20% of peers (1.06, 80th percentile)
Risks
  • Growth in bottom 20% of peers (percentile: 5)
  • Asset Growth YoY in bottom 20% of peers (-8.8%)
  • Rev Growth YoY in bottom 20% of peers (-15.5%)
  • EPS Growth YoY in bottom 20% of peers (-2.09)

Profitability

22th percentile vs peers
22
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

30th percentile vs peers
30
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for TransAlta Corporation.

Loading valuation model...
Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

  • Recently listed companies (IPOs, SPACs)
  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$7.91
- - -
-38.1% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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