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Company Analysis

Vistra Corp. VST

A comprehensive view of key metrics, scores, and financial health for Vistra Corp.

Overview of Vistra Corp.

VST NYQ
Utilities Utilities - Independent Power Producers Framework: Regulated Utilities Large Cap
Vistra Corp. (VST), is a Large Cap company, in the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry, last closed at $162.33, about 49.8% overvalued vs fair value, -18.0% 1Y return, ranked 34/117 in sector.
Metrics P/E 72.5× Rev Growth 3.0% ROE 17.7% Gross Margin 32.9% Div Yield 0.91%
USD 162.33
2.75%
(Delayed)
• Vol 90d: 48.4%
52-Week Range
Market Cap
$53.27B
Enterprise Value
$72.55B
Overall Score
View breakdown
Overall
Growth
Excellent
Profitability
Good
Health
Good
Efficiency
Fair
Valuation
Good
Growth
Excellent
Profitability
Good
Health
Good
Efficiency
Fair
Valuation
Good
Completeness: 82%
Confidence: 85%
Updated: Jul 5
Top Beats

Quick Facts

Website https://vistracorp.com
HQ Irving, TX
Employees 6,390
Fiscal year Dec 31

Next Events

Earnings Aug 6 Estimated

Fair Value Snapshot

Bear Base Bull
$65
$81
$96
Current: $162.33 -50% vs base

Engine Room Money Flow™

Large Cap

Regulated Utilities - Where revenue goes and how value is created

Flow Steps
Total Revenue
$17.7B
3%%
EBITDA
$5.1B
-27.3%%
Operating Income (EBIT)
$2.1B
-47.7%%
Net Income
$944.0M
-64.5%%
Money Flow Bridge
Flow Direction: Money moves from left to right
Components: Breakdown shows composition of each stage
Industry-Specific: Regulated Utilities

Quality & Reliability Indicators

FFO / Total Debt
20.1%
Excellent

FFO ÷ Total Debt — the primary S&P/Moody's credit metric for utility ratings. >15% is investment-grade; >20% signals strong credit quality.

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Owner's Pocket - Capital Allocation

Total Returned to Shareholders

Combined dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

$1.5B
37.9% of FFO

Where It Leaks

Cash Flow Health some concerns
Moderate efficiency issues detected. Review active leaks below for improvement areas.
3
Active Leaks
0/3
Improving
0
High Impact
0
Critical
Locked Leak
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Locked Leak
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Moat Analysis Regulated Utilities

Competitive Advantage Assessment

Evaluating Vistra Corp.'s durable competitive advantages across 6 defense dimensions

Overall Moat Strength
45
/100
Developing
Scores based on quantitative metrics and qualitative factors

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Regulatory Franchise

Weak
19
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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Trade-Off Ledger™

Where management spends the performance budget - Growth, Profitability, or Safety

Regulated Utilities vs Industry Peers 100% Coverage
Trade-Off Triangle Visualization A ternary plot showing VST's balance between Growth (26.9%), Profitability (32.9%), and Safety (40.2%). Growth 27% Safety 40% Profitability 33%

Click axes to expand details. Marker shows current allocation.

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Growth

40th percentile vs peers
40
Key Signals
Asset Growth YoY 10.0% 59p Revenue CAGR 3Y 8.9% 69p Rev Growth YoY 3.0% 25p EPS Growth YoY -69.4% 10p Equity Growth YoY -15.3% 10p
Strengths
  • ROE in top 20% of peers (17.7%, 91th percentile)
  • Net Debt/EBITDA in top 20% of peers (2.33, 81th percentile)
  • Cash Flow to Debt Ratio in top 20% of peers (17.81, 98th percentile)
  • Conservative leverage compared to industry peers
Risks
  • EPS Growth YoY in bottom 20% of peers (-69.4%)
  • Growth below peer median (percentile: 40)

Profitability

49th percentile vs peers
49
Key Signals
Strengths
Risks
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Safety

60th percentile vs peers
60
Key Signals
Strengths
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Two Futures

Scenario-based fair value ranges for Vistra Corp..

Loading valuation model...
Unable to Compute Fair Value

This company cannot be valued using standard models.

What this means: The Scenario Theatre requires financial data (revenue, cash flow, shares outstanding) to calculate fair value estimates. This data may be unavailable for:

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  • Shell companies or holding companies
  • Companies that haven't filed recent financials
  • Foreign companies with limited data coverage
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Bear
-
- - -
- upside
-
Base
$81.44
- - -
-49.8% vs current
Snapshot base estimate
Bull
-
- - -
- upside
-
Fair Value Range Current: $-
$- $- $-
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